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Solar in Florida
At 15.03¢ per kWh and 1544 kWh of production per kW each year, a household paying $200 a month needs a 9.72 kW system. Paid in cash, it returns its $20,610 cost in 9 yr.
What we don't know yet
Two prices, two answers
Payback 9 yr — at competitive quoted prices ($2.12/W, EnergySage 2026): net cost $20,610, 25-year net $45,986.
Payback 18 yr — at typical reported prices ($4.50/W, LBNL 2023): net cost $43,747, 25-year net $22,849.
The gap is methodology, not staleness: the first what you get if you shop around for competitive quotes; the second what the average buyer actually paid, as recorded in permit and incentive data. Every table below uses quoted prices. Why we show both.
By monthly bill
| Your bill | Use / yr | System | Panels | Net cost | Payback | 25-yr net (cash) | Lease, year 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100/mo | 7,026 kWh | 4.55 kW | 12 | $9,647 | 9.6 yr | $18,573 | $317 |
| $150/mo | 11,018 kWh | 7.14 kW | 18 | $15,128 | 9.2 yr | $32,280 | $497 |
| $200/mo | 15,010 kWh | 9.72 kW | 25 | $20,610 | 9 yr | $45,986 | $677 |
| $300/mo | 22,994 kWh | 14.89 kW | 38 | $31,572 | 8.8 yr | $73,398 | $1,037 |
Cash, loan or lease — at $200 a month
| How you pay | 25-year net | Upfront | Year 1 | Payback / cash flow | Federal credit to you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $45,986 | $20,610 | $2,106 | 9 yr | $0 |
| Loan $160/mo · 6.99% APR · 20 yr | $28,277 | $0 | $190 | cash-flow neutral from year 1 (+$190/yr) | $0 |
| Lease / PPA | $18,997 | $0 | $677 | immediate (+$677 in year 1) | $0 |
The 30% federal credit goes to the system owner, not to you. It is reflected in the rate you are offered. The owner claims it at 30% under IRC 48E.
The inputs, and where they came from
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Residential electricity rate | 15.03¢/kWh | U.S. EIA API v2, electricity/retail-sales, residential sector, 2026-07 |
| Specific yield | 1544 kWh/kW/yr | NLR (formerly NREL) PVWatts v8 API, 1 kW reference system (city:orlando-fl) |
| Installed cost | $2.12/W | EnergySage Marketplace real-quote average, as of Sep 2026; page updated 2026-08-28 · LBNL Tracking the Sun 2023 median: $4.5/W, reference only |
| Export compensation | full retail net metering · 100% | Rule 25-6.065, Florida Administrative Code, provides that during any billing cycle excess customer-owned renewable generation delivered to the utility's grid shall be credited to the customer's energy consumption for the next month's billing cycle: a kilowatt-hour credit at the retail rate. The rule covers systems up to 2 MW. Follows: All investor-owned utilities, under Rule 25-6.065 F.A.C. Source, read 2026-09-05. |
| Federal credit, purchase | 0% | IRC 25D (expired) |
| Federal credit, third-party owner | 30% | IRC 48E (Clean Electricity Investment Credit) |
| State incentives | $0 | Not yet researched — net cost may be overstated |
City-level production on file for: Orlando. The figures above use Orlando.