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Solar in New Jersey
At 24.95¢ per kWh and 1305 kWh of production per kW each year, a household paying $200 a month needs a 6.93 kW system. Paid in cash, it returns its $17,876 cost in 7.9 yr.
What we don't know yet
Two prices, two answers
Payback 7.9 yr — at competitive quoted prices ($2.58/W, EnergySage 2026): net cost $17,876, 25-year net $48,720.
Payback 14.4 yr — at typical reported prices ($4.80/W, LBNL 2023): net cost $33,258, 25-year net $33,338.
The gap is methodology, not staleness: the first what you get if you shop around for competitive quotes; the second what the average buyer actually paid, as recorded in permit and incentive data. Every table below uses quoted prices. Why we show both.
By monthly bill
| Your bill | Use / yr | System | Panels | Net cost | Payback | 25-yr net (cash) | Lease, year 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100/mo | 4,232 kWh | 3.24 kW | 9 | $8,368 | 8.5 yr | $19,852 | $317 |
| $150/mo | 6,637 kWh | 5.09 kW | 13 | $13,122 | 8.1 yr | $34,286 | $497 |
| $200/mo | 9,042 kWh | 6.93 kW | 18 | $17,876 | 7.9 yr | $48,720 | $677 |
| $300/mo | 13,852 kWh | 10.61 kW | 27 | $27,385 | 7.7 yr | $77,585 | $1,037 |
Cash, loan or lease — at $200 a month
| How you pay | 25-year net | Upfront | Year 1 | Payback / cash flow | Federal credit to you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $48,720 | $17,876 | $2,106 | 7.9 yr | $0 |
| Loan $138/mo · 6.99% APR · 20 yr | $33,359 | $0 | $444 | immediate (+$444 in year 1) | $0 |
| Lease / PPA | $18,997 | $0 | $677 | immediate (+$677 in year 1) | $0 |
The 30% federal credit goes to the system owner, not to you. It is reflected in the rate you are offered. The owner claims it at 30% under IRC 48E.
The inputs, and where they came from
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Residential electricity rate | 24.95¢/kWh | U.S. EIA API v2, electricity/retail-sales, residential sector, 2026-06 |
| Specific yield | 1305 kWh/kW/yr | NLR (formerly NREL) PVWatts v8 API, 1 kW reference system (city:newark-nj) |
| Installed cost | $2.58/W | EnergySage Marketplace real-quote average, as of Sep 2026; page updated 2026-08-28 · LBNL Tracking the Sun 2023 median: $4.8/W, reference only |
| Export compensation | full retail net metering · 100% | Full retail net metering — not yet verified against the tariff |
| Federal credit, purchase | 0% | IRC 25D (expired) |
| Federal credit, third-party owner | 30% | IRC 48E (Clean Electricity Investment Credit) |
| State incentives | $0 | No upfront statewide credit or rebate for a typical owner-occupier (verified) · Not modelled: SuSI Administratively Determined Incentive (SREC-II), residential net-metered |
City-level production on file for: Newark. The figures above use Newark.