Solar / Guides
Solar payback in 2026
Paying cash at quoted prices on a $200-a-month bill, rooftop solar pays for itself in 5.5 yr in New York and 12.1 yr in Arizona — 9.8 yr for a 9.54 kW system in Austin, Texas, on a $200-a-month bill. There is no federal credit for a buyer in 2026; the state you live in, the price you pay and the rate you avoid decide the number.
The order of the states is the story: the ones with expensive electricity pay back first, not the ones with the most sun. Every figure below is computed at build time by one published engine; the calculator runs it for your bill.
What payback means here
Payback is the year the running total of your savings reaches what you paid. The engine builds it from the bill you avoid each year — your annual use at that year's rate, less what solar leaves you importing, plus what your exports are credited — minus $150 a year of operations and a $1,800 inverter in year 12, with production falling 0.5% a year and the electricity price rising 2.5% a year by default. When the total crosses zero, the engine interpolates inside that year. It is the point where the cash curve on every chart crosses the axis, and a test holds the two together.Formulas: the year-by-year model and the finance functions. Assumptions verified 2026-09-04.
Payback by state
Cash purchase, quoted prices, 2026 policy, the same $200-a-month bill everywhere. Sorted fastest first.
| State | Payback, quoted | Payback, reported | Rate | Yield | $/W quoted | Net cost | 25-year net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 5.5 yr | 9.4 yr | 29.49¢ | 1291 | $2.76 | $12,266 | $54,330 |
| Massachusetts | 7.1 yr | 9.5 yr | 29.61¢ | 1302 | $2.91 | $16,029 | $50,567 |
| New Jersey | 7.9 yr | 14.4 yr | 24.95¢ | 1305 | $2.58 | $17,876 | $48,720 |
| California | 8.1 yr | 14.2 yr | 34.74¢ | 1677 | $2.48 | $9,603 | $24,525 |
| Maryland | 8.5 yr | 13.9 yr | 21.84¢ | 1392 | $2.62 | $19,442 | $47,154 |
| Pennsylvania | 8.6 yr | — | 21.73¢ | 1359 | $2.58 | $19,710 | $46,886 |
| Connecticut | 8.8 yr | 14.7 yr | 24.32¢ | 1252 | $2.72 | $20,153 | $46,443 |
| Florida | 8.9 yr | 17.9 yr | 15.1¢ | 1544 | $2.12 | $20,514 | $46,082 |
| Texas | 9.6 yr | 17.2 yr | 15.94¢ | 1506 | $2.22 | $20,863 | $41,404 |
| Illinois | 11.1 yr | — | 19.89¢ | 1308 | $2.98 | $25,841 | $40,755 |
| Arizona | 12.1 yr | 19.7 yr | 15.18¢ | 1755 | $2.21 | $17,715 | $27,237 |
Rate: EIA 2026-06. Yield: kWh per kW a year, PVWatts v8. Net cost includes each state's modelled credit. Reported-price payback uses the LBNL 2023 median where one is published.
Why the rate beats the sunshine
Massachusetts produces 1302 kWh per kW a year and Arizona 1755 — Arizona has 35% more sun. But Massachusetts pays 29.61¢ for each kilowatt-hour it avoids and Arizona 15.18¢, and Arizona's exports are credited at 50% of retail against Massachusetts's 100%. Payback: 7.1 yr against 12.1 yr. A kilowatt-hour of sunshine is worth what the utility would have charged you for it.
What moves it
One input moved at a time on a 9.54 kW system in Austin, Texas, on a $200-a-month bill, everything else held at the defaults. Base case: payback 9.8 yr, 25-year net $41,080.
| Change | Payback | vs base | 25-year net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Installed price −20% ($1.78/W) | 8 yr | −1.8 yr | $45,279 |
| Installed price +20% ($2.66/W) | 12.2 yr | +2.4 yr | $36,881 |
| Electricity price flat (0% a year) | 12 yr | +2.2 yr | $23,217 |
| Electricity price +5% a year | 8.9 yr | −0.9 yr | $67,449 |
| Retail rate −20% | 12.7 yr | +2.9 yr | $35,780 |
| Retail rate +20% | 8.3 yr | −1.5 yr | $44,613 |
| Production −10% | 10.8 yr | +1 yr | $38,732 |
| Production +10% | 9 yr | −0.8 yr | $43,003 |
The electricity-price escalator is the most contested assumption in any solar calculator; it is a slider in the calculator.
Two prices, two paybacks
Installed cost has two defensible answers — competitive quotes and the prices buyers reported paying — and they differ by roughly 60%, so every payback on this site comes in two versions. For a 9.54 kW system in Austin, Texas, on a $200-a-month bill: 9.8 yr at $2.22/W (EnergySage 2026) and 17.4 yr at $4.10/W (LBNL 2023). Which one is yours depends on the quote in your hand. The cost page shows both by state.
Zero-upfront options have no payback
A zero-down loan or a lease has nothing to pay back, so the engine reports a cash-flow verdict instead: on this house the loan is cash-flow neutral from year 1 (+$1/yr) and the lease is immediate (+$542 in year 1). "Immediate" requires at least 10% of the annual bill in year-one net cash flow; below that the verdict is neutral. The lease-vs-buy page puts the three side by side.
Payback is not the verdict
Payback stops counting at the crossing; the system does not. On a 9.54 kW system in Austin, Texas, on a $200-a-month bill, cash pays back in 9.8 yr and goes on to $41,080 over 25 years; the loan never has a payback to report and ends at $22,875. That is why every table on this site prints the 25-year net first and in bold, and why the charts draw the whole curve rather than the crossing.
Payback by bill size, and with a battery
The same house at four bill sizes, cash, quoted prices, 2026 policy — and the $200 bill again with a 13.5 kWh battery added.
| Monthly bill | System | Net cost | Payback | 25-year net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 4.47 kW | $9,917 | 10.5 yr | $16,278 |
| $150 | 7.01 kW | $15,552 | 10 yr | $28,676 |
| $200 | 9.54 kW | $21,187 | 9.8 yr | $41,080 |
| $300 | 14.62 kW | $32,456 | 9.6 yr | $65,883 |
| $200 + battery | 9.54 kW + 13.5 kWh | $33,187 | 14.7 yr | $31,605 |
A battery lengthens payback wherever exports are credited near retail, because it adds $12,000 and saves little. Where exports are credited well below retail the sign can change; the battery page runs it by state.
Questions
- How long does solar take to pay for itself in 2026?
- Paying cash at quoted prices on a $200-a-month bill: 5.5 yr in New York to 12.1 yr in Arizona across the 11 states we publish; 9.8 yr for a 9.54 kW system in Austin, Texas, on a $200-a-month bill. At reported prices, 9.4 yr to 19.7 yr. There is no federal credit for a buyer in 2026.
- How is payback calculated?
- The engine sums each year's net savings — the bill you avoid, minus operations and the inverter replacement — until the running total reaches the net cost you paid up front, and interpolates within that year. It is the year the cash curve crosses zero, and a test checks that the printed payback and the curve agree.
- Why is payback faster in Massachusetts than in Arizona?
- Because payback follows the price of the electricity you avoid more than the amount of sun. Massachusetts pays 29.61¢/kWh and produces 1302 kWh per kW a year; Arizona pays 15.18¢/kWh and produces 1755. Massachusetts pays back in 7.1 yr, Arizona in 12.1 yr.
- What shortens payback the most?
- On a 9.54 kW system in Austin, Texas, on a $200-a-month bill, the installed price: 20% off the quote moves payback −1.8 yr; 20% on it, +2.4 yr. The assumed rise in electricity prices is the most contested input and the second biggest lever (+2.2 yr if prices stay flat, −0.9 yr at 5% a year).
- Does a loan have a payback period?
- Not a meaningful one: nothing is paid up front, so there is nothing to pay back. The engine reports a cash-flow verdict instead — for a 9.54 kW system in Austin, Texas, on a $200-a-month bill the loan is cash-flow neutral from year 1 (+$1/yr) — and the number to compare is the 25-year net.
- Does payback include the state tax credit?
- Yes. Payback is measured against the net cost — the installed price less any state credit the buyer receives (there is no federal credit in 2026). It does not include performance payments such as SRECs, which the engine records but does not yet pay out, so payback in Illinois and New Jersey is conservative.
- Does a bigger bill mean a faster payback?
- Barely, on this model: $100 a month pays back in 10.5 yr, $150 a month pays back in 10 yr, $200 a month pays back in 9.8 yr, $300 a month pays back in 9.6 yr in Austin, Texas. The system scales with the bill, the price per watt does not change, and the fixed costs — $150 a year of operations and the inverter — are a smaller share of a larger system.
- What if I sell the house before payback?
- The model does not price the effect of a solar system on a home's sale value, so it cannot say. What it can say is what the system has saved by any given year: hover the cash curve on any chart, or read the table view.
- Is a shorter payback always better?
- No. Payback ignores everything after the crossing. Two systems can pay back in the same year and differ by tens of thousands over 25 years; the 25-year net is the column every table on this site prints first and in bold.
This is general information computed from published data and statute, each cited with the date it was read. It is a screening estimate, not a quote, and not financial or tax advice: confirm the figures against real quotes and with a professional before you rely on them.
Published 5 September 2026. Data last verified 5 September 2026. About the author.