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Solar in Texas
At 15.94¢ per kWh and 1483 kWh of production per kW each year, a household paying $200 a month needs a 9.54 kW system. Paid in cash, it returns its $21,187 cost in 9.8 yr.
What we don't know yet
Two prices, two answers
Payback 9.8 yr — at competitive quoted prices ($2.22/W, EnergySage 2026): net cost $21,187, 25-year net $41,080.
Payback 17.4 yr — at typical reported prices ($4.10/W, LBNL 2023): net cost $39,129, 25-year net $23,138.
The gap is methodology, not staleness: the first what you get if you shop around for competitive quotes; the second what the average buyer actually paid, as recorded in permit and incentive data. Every table below uses quoted prices. Why we show both.
By monthly bill
| Your bill | Use / yr | System | Panels | Net cost | Payback | 25-yr net (cash) | Lease, year 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100/mo | 6,625 kWh | 4.47 kW | 12 | $9,917 | 10.5 yr | $16,278 | $254 |
| $150/mo | 10,389 kWh | 7.01 kW | 18 | $15,552 | 10 yr | $28,676 | $398 |
| $200/mo | 14,153 kWh | 9.54 kW | 24 | $21,187 | 9.8 yr | $41,080 | $542 |
| $300/mo | 21,681 kWh | 14.62 kW | 37 | $32,456 | 9.6 yr | $65,883 | $830 |
Cash, loan or lease — at $200 a month
| How you pay | 25-year net | Upfront | Year 1 | Payback / cash flow | Federal credit to you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $41,080 | $21,187 | $1,971 | 9.8 yr | $0 |
| Loan $164/mo · 6.99% APR · 20 yr | $22,875 | $0 | $1 | cash-flow neutral from year 1 (+$1/yr) | $0 |
| Lease / PPA | $14,668 | $0 | $542 | immediate (+$542 in year 1) | $0 |
The 30% federal credit goes to the system owner, not to you. It is reflected in the rate you are offered. The owner claims it at 30% under IRC 48E.
The inputs, and where they came from
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Residential electricity rate | 15.94¢/kWh | U.S. EIA API v2, electricity/retail-sales, residential sector, 2026-06 |
| Specific yield | 1483 kWh/kW/yr | NLR (formerly NREL) PVWatts v8 API, 1 kW reference system (city:austin-tx) |
| Installed cost | $2.22/W | EnergySage Marketplace real-quote average, as of Sep 2026; page updated 2026-08-28 · LBNL Tracking the Sun 2023 median: $4.1/W, reference only |
| Export compensation | varies by utility or retail provider · 90% | no statewide mandate; deregulated buyback plans differ by retailer — not yet verified against the tariff |
| Federal credit, purchase | 0% | IRC 25D (expired) |
| Federal credit, third-party owner | 30% | IRC 48E (Clean Electricity Investment Credit) |
| State incentives | $0 | No upfront statewide credit or rebate for a typical owner-occupier (verified) |
City-level production on file for: Austin. The figures above use Austin.