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Solar in Texas
At 15.88¢ per kWh and 1483 kWh of production per kW each year, a household paying $200 a month needs a 9.58 kW system. Paid in cash, it returns its $21,267 cost in 12 yr.
What we don't know yet
Two prices, two answers
Payback 12 yr — at competitive quoted prices ($2.22/W, EnergySage 2026): net cost $21,267, 25-year net $32,341.
Payback 19.7 yr — at typical reported prices ($4.10/W, LBNL 2023): net cost $39,276, 25-year net $14,332.
The gap is methodology, not staleness: the first what you get if you shop around for competitive quotes; the second what the average buyer actually paid, as recorded in permit and incentive data. Every table below uses quoted prices. Why we show both.
By monthly bill
| Your bill | Use / yr | System | Panels | Net cost | Payback | 25-yr net (cash) | Lease, year 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100/mo | 6,650 kWh | 4.48 kW | 12 | $9,955 | 14 yr | $12,188 | $127 |
| $150/mo | 10,428 kWh | 7.03 kW | 18 | $15,611 | 12.6 yr | $22,263 | $199 |
| $200/mo | 14,207 kWh | 9.58 kW | 24 | $21,267 | 12 yr | $32,341 | $271 |
| $300/mo | 21,763 kWh | 14.68 kW | 37 | $32,579 | 10.9 yr | $52,497 | $415 |
Cash, loan or lease — at $200 a month
| How you pay | 25-year net | Upfront | Year 1 | Payback / cash flow | Federal credit to you |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $32,341 | $21,267 | $1,700 | 12 yr | $0 |
| Loan $165/mo · 6.99% APR · 20 yr | $14,067 | $0 | −$277 | positive from year 20 | $0 |
| Lease / PPA | $6,009 | $0 | $271 | immediate (+$271 in year 1) | $0 |
The 30% federal credit goes to the system owner, not to you. It is reflected in the rate you are offered. The owner claims it at 30% under IRC 48E.
The inputs, and where they came from
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Residential electricity rate | 15.88¢/kWh | U.S. EIA API v2, electricity/retail-sales, residential sector, 2026-07 |
| Specific yield | 1483 kWh/kW/yr | NLR (formerly NREL) PVWatts v8 API, 1 kW reference system (city:austin-tx) |
| Installed cost | $2.22/W | EnergySage Marketplace real-quote average, as of Sep 2026; page updated 2026-08-28 · LBNL Tracking the Sun 2023 median: $4.1/W, reference only |
| Export compensation | varies by utility or retail provider · 70% | Texas has no statewide net metering mandate. The Public Utility Commission requires utilities outside the competitive market to purchase distributed renewable generation at avoided cost; inside it, whether exports are bought at all, and at what price, is a term of the retail provider's plan. Buyback plans range from one-for-one credit on the energy charge to no export credit at all, and the plans with the best buyback often carry a higher energy rate. No source states a single Texas number, because there is not one. 0.70 stands in for a typical energy-only buyback - a credit on the energy charge but not on delivery - and is a modelling choice, not a measured value. The record stays flagged as unverified, so every Texas figure on the site carries a warning. A reader should put their own provider's buyback rate into the calculator. Follows: None. In the competitive market each retail electric provider sets its own buyback plan; outside it, the utility must buy at avoided cost. Source, read 2026-09-05. |
| Federal credit, purchase | 0% | IRC 25D (expired) |
| Federal credit, third-party owner | 30% | IRC 48E (Clean Electricity Investment Credit) |
| State incentives | $0 | No upfront statewide credit or rebate for a typical owner-occupier (verified) |
City-level production on file for: Austin. The figures above use Austin.